Nvidia (NVDA): economic exposure

Data through Sep 25, 2026 · weekly returns, the stock market's own movement removed first

Over the 156 weeks to Sep 25, 2026, NVDA has been clearly sensitive to inflation expectations and interest rates and tentatively sensitive to oil and energy. No measurable link to U.S. dollar and credit spreads. It has typically moved 2.50 times as much as the U.S. stock market, which is accounted for separately.

Exposure to each economic force

Economic force	Typical weekly move	90% range	Evidence
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points	−6.4%	−9.9% to −2.9%	Clear
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points	+2.2%	+1.3% to +3.2%	Clear
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%	+1.6%	−0.47% to +3.7%	Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points	+1.1%	−1.5% to +3.8%	Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%	+1.1%	+0.35% to +1.9%	Tentative

Each figure is the stock's typical same-week move when that force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market. It describes the past; it is not a forecast.

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This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. It shows how the stock has moved alongside five economic forces. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Method: weekly returns over three years, regressed on weekly changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, 10-year inflation expectations, the trade-weighted dollar, oil and corporate credit spreads, controlling for the S&P 500. Newey-West standard errors; the 90% range and evidence label show how precisely each figure is measured. Prices from Yahoo Finance; economic series from FRED. Full methodology.