ETFs
- 46 widely held funds
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
- Three years of weekly returns
Most investors own funds, not single companies. Each fund here is measured the same way as a stock: its typical weekly move, beyond the stock market's own move, in weeks when a force moved by its standard amount. Bold, shaded figures held up; grey ones could not be told apart from zero. Funds that simply track the S&P 500 are not listed: with the market taken out, there is nothing left to measure.
Bond funds
The largest clear link here: TLT typically moved −3.8% in weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | −1.6% | +0.12% | −0.03% | +0.01% | −0.33% |
| BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF | −1.5% | +0.15% | −0.03% | 0.00% | −0.32% |
| HYGiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | −0.85% | +0.76% | −0.19% | 0.00% | −0.44% |
| IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −1.9% | +0.17% | +0.01% | −0.01% | +0.18% |
| LQDiShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | −2.2% | +0.31% | −0.14% | +0.02% | −1.5% |
| SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −0.36% | +0.09% | −0.07% | 0.00% | +0.33% |
| TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF | −1.5% | +1.5% | 0.00% | +0.01% | +0.17% |
| TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | −3.8% | −0.89% | +0.37% | +0.02% | −2.1% |
Sector funds
The largest clear link here: KRE typically moved +7.9% in weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITBiShares U.S. Home Construction ETF | −4.2% | +4.0% | −0.10% | −1.5% | −2.0% |
| JETSU.S. Global Jets ETF | −0.10% | +3.2% | +0.91% | −3.1% | −3.1% |
| KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF | −3.1% | +7.9% | −0.08% | −0.56% | −2.5% |
| SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF | +1.6% | −3.2% | −0.33% | +0.24% | +0.28% |
| VNQVanguard Real Estate ETF | −2.9% | +2.5% | −0.71% | +0.21% | −0.30% |
| XLBMaterials Select Sector SPDR Fund | −1.3% | +2.5% | −1.7% | −0.35% | −0.64% |
| XLCCommunication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund | +0.09% | +0.30% | −0.52% | −0.01% | +0.07% |
| XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund | −0.18% | +3.0% | −0.37% | +2.6% | +0.02% |
| XLFFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund | −0.66% | +2.6% | +0.41% | −0.30% | −0.78% |
| XLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR Fund | −0.37% | +1.9% | −0.20% | −0.41% | +0.05% |
| XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund | +1.0% | −2.3% | +0.23% | +0.19% | +0.04% |
| XLPConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | −1.1% | +1.4% | −0.66% | −0.34% | +0.04% |
| XLREReal Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund | −2.8% | +2.1% | −0.86% | +0.29% | −0.31% |
| XLUUtilities Select Sector SPDR Fund | −1.1% | −1.4% | −0.44% | +0.58% | +0.83% |
| XLVHealth Care Select Sector SPDR Fund | −1.1% | +1.2% | −0.44% | −0.57% | −1.0% |
| XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund | −1.1% | +2.0% | +0.16% | −0.59% | −0.40% |
| XOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | −0.06% | +4.4% | −0.87% | +3.7% | +0.25% |
Broad, style and dividend funds
The largest clear link here: IWM typically moved +3.7% in weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKKARK Innovation ETF | −1.5% | +2.7% | −0.42% | −0.49% | −2.3% |
| DIASPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF | −0.48% | +1.0% | −0.04% | −0.41% | −0.73% |
| IWMiShares Russell 2000 ETF | −1.8% | +3.7% | −0.55% | −0.33% | −0.94% |
| QQQInvesco QQQ Trust | +0.51% | −1.1% | +0.18% | +0.04% | +0.40% |
| RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | −1.1% | +1.8% | −0.45% | −0.16% | −0.68% |
| SCHDSchwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | −1.4% | +3.1% | −0.62% | +0.18% | −0.80% |
| VTVVanguard Value ETF | −0.80% | +1.6% | −0.39% | −0.08% | −0.40% |
| VUGVanguard Growth ETF | +0.54% | −1.2% | +0.42% | +0.07% | +0.23% |
| VYMVanguard High Dividend Yield ETF | −0.76% | +1.9% | −0.46% | +0.02% | −0.37% |
Commodity funds
The largest clear link here: USO typically moved +8.3% in weeks when the price of oil rose 10%, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | +0.39% | +0.77% | −1.3% | +3.2% | +0.37% |
| GLDSPDR Gold Shares | −0.21% | −0.44% | −3.2% | +0.38% | +0.87% |
| SLViShares Silver Trust | +0.48% | −1.4% | −5.2% | +0.06% | −1.6% |
| URAGlobal X Uranium ETF | −0.34% | +5.5% | −4.0% | −0.92% | +2.0% |
| USOUnited States Oil Fund | −0.04% | +1.9% | +0.08% | +8.3% | +1.0% |
International funds
The largest clear link here: FXI typically moved −4.2% in weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EEMiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +0.38% | −0.74% | −3.0% | −0.54% | −0.31% |
| EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF | −0.18% | +1.3% | −2.9% | −0.52% | −0.34% |
| EWJiShares MSCI Japan ETF | −0.11% | +1.7% | −2.4% | −0.66% | −0.04% |
| FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETF | +0.95% | −0.73% | −4.2% | +0.49% | −1.2% |
| INDAiShares MSCI India ETF | −0.87% | +1.1% | −1.0% | −0.81% | +0.17% |
| VXUSVanguard Total International Stock ETF | −0.07% | +0.73% | −2.8% | −0.48% | −0.29% |
Crypto funds
The largest clear link here: IBIT typically moved +8.5% in weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points, beyond the stock market's own move.
| Fund | Interest rates | Inflation expectations | U.S. dollar | Oil and energy | Credit spreads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBITiShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | −1.5% | +8.5% | −2.9% | −0.35% | −0.59% |
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.