How it works
From holdings to a plain-English report in about a minute
Enter holdings
Paste tickers with weights, upload a CSV, or start from a sample. Stocks and ETFs both work.
We measure
Three years of weekly returns are compared with weekly changes in five economic series from the Federal Reserve, with the stock market accounted for.
You read it plainly
Each exposure shows its size, a 90% range, the weeks of data used, the holdings behind it, and how strong the evidence is.
Every number is labelled
We tell you how much to trust each result
Statistics can make noise look meaningful. Each exposure carries one of four labels, and the bar for “Clear” is raised because five factors are tested at once.
Strong enough to hold up even after allowing for testing five factors at once.
Suggestive, but could plausibly be noise. Worth watching, not relying on.
The measured relationship is within the range of random noise.
Too little price history to measure reliably, so nothing is shown.
What this is not
Not a forecast. Not a stock pick.
We spent months testing whether macro data could predict markets. It could not do so reliably, and we publish those failed tests rather than hide them. So this product measures what a portfolio is exposed to today and says nothing about what happens next.
Who it is for
Advisers first
Independent advisers and small RIAs: show a client, on one page, why their portfolio moves when rates or oil move and which holdings cause it.
Self-directed investors: check whether a portfolio that looks diversified is quietly concentrated in one economic force.
Data
Six economic forces, from public sources
Prices from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for dividends. Economic series from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
Pricing
Early-access pricing
These prices are being tested with early users and may change. Features marked “in development” are not available yet.
- Exposure report for one portfolio, up to 15 holdings
- Holdings behind each exposure
- Range and evidence label on every number
- Save one portfolio with a free account
- Public methodology and research record
- Measure up to 25 holdings per portfolio
- Everything in Free
- Weekly “what changed” email
- Exposure threshold alerts
- PDF export and multiple portfolios
- Reports for multiple client portfolios
- Client-ready explanations for review meetings
- Built with you: tell us what your clients ask
FAQ
Questions
Is this a forecast?
No. Every number describes how a portfolio has moved alongside an economic force over the past three years. Relationships change, so it is a description of exposure, not a prediction of returns. We tested whether this kind of data could predict markets and found it could not; those results are published on the research page.
How is exposure calculated?
We compare three years of weekly portfolio returns with weekly changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, the dollar, oil and credit spreads, while accounting for the overall stock market. Each result comes with a 90% range, the number of weeks used, and an evidence label. Growth is measured separately on monthly data and is always marked as limited evidence.
Why account for the stock market?
Rates, oil and the dollar often move on the same days stocks do. Without separating that out, almost every stock portfolio would look sensitive to everything. The report shows what is left after the market's own movement is removed.
What does "Not distinguishable from zero" mean?
It means the measured relationship is small enough that it could be random noise. We show it rather than hide it, because knowing a portfolio is not meaningfully exposed to something is useful too.
Do I need an account?
Not for your first report. A free account lets you save a portfolio and come back to it.
Can advisers use this with clients?
That is who we are building it for. We are running a small pilot with independent advisers to learn what a client-ready report needs. If you are an adviser, get in touch below.
Is this investment advice?
No. Unstructured Alpha is an educational and informational tool. It does not know your circumstances and does not recommend buying or selling anything.
Where does the data come from?
Economic series come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Prices come from Yahoo Finance and include dividends. If a series or price history is unavailable, it is left out and named in the report, never filled in.
See what a portfolio is exposed to.
Start with a sample, or paste your own holdings. It takes about a minute.