Ford Motor Company (F): economic exposure
Over the 156 weeks to Oct 2, 2026, F has been tentatively sensitive to inflation expectations, U.S. dollar and interest rates. No measurable link to oil and energy and credit spreads. It has typically moved 0.78 times as much as the U.S. stock market, which is accounted for separately.
Exposure to each economic force
| Economic force | Typical weekly move | 90% range | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +5.6%Consumer Discretionary median +2.4% | +0.93% to +10.4% | TentativeHeld its direction a year later 61% of the time (coin flip: 50%) |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −3.0%Consumer Discretionary median 0.00% | −5.0% to −1.0% | TentativeHeld its direction a year later 65% of the time (coin flip: 50%) |
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −2.1%Consumer Discretionary median −1.4% | −3.9% to −0.33% | TentativeHeld its direction a year later 72% of the time (coin flip: 50%) |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | −0.41%Consumer Discretionary median −0.89% | −1.7% to +0.90% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −0.01%Consumer Discretionary median −1.5% | −4.0% to +4.0% | Not distinguishable from zero |
What if?
Only the forces whose reading held up are offered. The figure scales in a straight line with the move and describes the past; it is not a forecast. See every stock on record for a move like this.
More forces, beyond the core five
| Force | Typical weekly move | 90% range | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.07%Consumer Discretionary median −0.86% | −3.2% to +3.0% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | −0.18%Consumer Discretionary median +0.02% | −1.8% to +1.5% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.30%Consumer Discretionary median −0.07% | −1.4% to +2.0% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | −1.0%Consumer Discretionary median −0.23% | −1.9% to +0.01% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | −0.33%Consumer Discretionary median +0.01% | −1.0% to +0.39% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | −0.03%Consumer Discretionary median 0.00% | −0.07% to +0.01% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.19%Consumer Discretionary median −0.01% | −0.80% to +1.2% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | +0.68%Consumer Discretionary median +0.31% | +0.25% to +1.1% | Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | +0.54%Consumer Discretionary median +0.49% | +0.06% to +1.0% | Tentative |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.09%Consumer Discretionary median −0.18% | −0.54% to +0.37% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +1.2%Consumer Discretionary median +0.07% | −1.7% to +4.1% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −1.3%Consumer Discretionary median +0.04% | −2.8% to +0.08% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +0.25%Consumer Discretionary median −0.10% | −0.05% to +0.55% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | −0.22%Consumer Discretionary median +0.08% | −0.43% to −0.01% | Tentative |
Other stocks exposed to inflation expectations
Moved up with inflation expectations
Moved down with inflation expectations
Stocks with the most similar profile
Closest across the five core forces, each scaled by how much stocks on record differ on it. Alike in how they moved over three years, not in business, size or value.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. It shows how the stock has moved alongside five economic forces. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
Method: weekly returns over three years, regressed on weekly changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, 10-year inflation expectations, the trade-weighted dollar, oil and corporate credit spreads, controlling for the S&P 500. Newey-West standard errors; the 90% range and evidence label show how precisely each figure is measured. Prices from Yahoo Finance; economic series from FRED. Full methodology.