UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

XOP vs FANG

On none of the 19 forces measured do XOP and FANG differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

XOPFANGBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceXOPSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFFANGDiamondback Energy
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.06%−1.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.42%−0.88% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+4.4%+1.4% to +7.4%Tentative+5.4%+1.7% to +9.0%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.87%−2.3% to +0.53%Not distinguishable from zero−0.60%−2.6% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+3.7%+2.7% to +4.7%Clear+3.9%+2.3% to +5.4%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.25%−1.5% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.93%−1.7% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.22%−2.0% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.18%−2.1% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−2.1%−3.2% to −1.1%Clear−2.2%−3.9% to −0.62%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.2%+0.18% to +2.2%Tentative+0.88%−0.72% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.56%−1.4% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero−0.70%−1.6% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.37%−0.22% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.74% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.03%0.00% to +0.05%Tentative0.00%−0.02% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.34%−1.1% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero−0.64%−1.6% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.69%+0.43% to +1.0%Clear+0.59%+0.27% to +0.91%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+1.0%+0.77% to +1.2%Clear+0.95%+0.64% to +1.3%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.19%−0.40% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero+0.07%−0.31% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.8%−4.8% to −0.88%Tentative−3.6%−6.2% to −0.92%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.51%−1.3% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero−0.85%−1.9% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.03%−0.28% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero+0.10%−0.23% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.14%+0.03% to +0.25%Tentative+0.08%−0.08% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure XOP and FANG togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.