XLY vs XLF
- 2 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
XLY and XLF clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is market volatility: in weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points, XLY typically moved +0.29% and XLF −0.76%.
| Economic force | XLYConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund | XLFFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −1.1%−1.5% to −0.70%Clear | −0.66%−1.5% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +2.0%+0.82% to +3.2%Clear | +2.6%+1.2% to +3.9%Clear |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +0.16%−0.47% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.41%−0.59% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | −0.59%−1.0% to −0.21%Tentative | −0.30%−0.65% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −0.40%−1.2% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.78%−2.1% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.72%−1.8% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.40%−1.4% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | +0.29%−0.22% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.76%−1.1% to −0.39%Clear |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.13%−0.38% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.08%−0.45% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | −0.02%−0.41% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.43%−0.82% to −0.04%Tentative |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | −0.06%−0.32% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.02%−0.28% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | 0.00%−0.02% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.03%−0.04% to −0.01%Tentative |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.38%+0.09% to +0.67%Tentative | −0.24%−0.67% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | +0.09%−0.04% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.29%+0.19% to +0.38%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.06%−0.21% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.65%+0.55% to +0.74%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.24%−0.39% to −0.09%Tentative | −0.23%−0.38% to −0.08%Tentative |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.50%−0.26% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.17%−1.2% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.06%−0.36% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.03%−0.38% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | −0.11%−0.22% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.31%−0.42% to −0.20%Clear |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.08%+0.01% to +0.14%Tentative | +0.14%+0.04% to +0.23%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.