UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

XLV vs FERG

XLV and FERG clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is copper: in weeks when the price of copper rose 5%, XLV typically moved +0.48% and FERG −0.56%.

XLVFERGBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceXLVHealth Care Select Sector SPDR FundFERGFerguson Enterprises
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−1.8% to −0.45%Clear−1.6%−3.0% to −0.27%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.2%−0.49% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−2.9% to +5.3%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.44%−1.2% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero−0.49%−1.9% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.57%−1.0% to −0.10%Tentative−0.60%−1.6% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−2.2% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero−0.94%−4.7% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.21%−1.4% to +0.95%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−1.7% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.41%−1.0% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−1.0% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.14%−0.35% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero+0.52%−0.73% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.30%−0.32% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.83% to +0.74%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%Clear difference+0.48%+0.11% to +0.85%Tentative−0.56%−1.2% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.32%−0.94% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.78% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.23%+0.08% to +0.38%Tentative+0.82%+0.50% to +1.1%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.53%+0.40% to +0.65%Clear+0.56%+0.28% to +0.84%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.47%−0.64% to −0.31%Clear−0.08%−0.43% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.59%−0.40% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−1.0% to +3.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.08%−0.59% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero+0.20%−0.77% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.24%−0.48% to −0.01%Tentative−0.13%−0.46% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.12%−0.01% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.15% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure XLV and FERG togetherWhat if? Move a force

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Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.