XLK vs SMH
- 2 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
XLK and SMH clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is momentum: in weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point, XLK typically moved +0.55% and SMH +1.2%.
| Economic force | XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund | SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.0%+0.29% to +1.6%Tentative | +1.6%+0.32% to +2.9%Tentative |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | −2.3%−3.7% to −1.0%Clear | −3.2%−5.6% to −0.69%Tentative |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +0.23%−0.46% to +0.91%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.33%−1.7% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | +0.19%−0.19% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.24%−0.40% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +0.04%−1.0% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.28%−2.2% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.79%−0.23% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero | +2.2%+0.39% to +3.9%Tentative |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | +0.32%−0.13% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.03%−1.0% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | 0.00%−0.48% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.19%−0.67% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | −0.03%−0.41% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.09%−0.85% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | −0.09%−0.34% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.09%−0.66% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | +0.01%0.00% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | 0.00%−0.01% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.24%−0.09% to +0.58%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.38%−0.33% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | −0.12%−0.24% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.11%−0.16% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | −0.57%−0.66% to −0.48%Clear | −0.60%−0.85% to −0.34%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.55%+0.44% to +0.66%Clear | +1.2%+1.0% to +1.4%Clear |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.59%−1.4% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.1%−3.0% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.11%−0.55% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.51%−1.3% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.35%+0.18% to +0.52%Clear | +0.92%+0.67% to +1.2%Clear |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | −0.20%−0.30% to −0.09%Clear | −0.37%−0.59% to −0.14%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.