UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

XLI vs TDY

XLI and TDY clearly differ on 1 of 19 forces. The widest gap is natural gas: in weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%, XLI typically moved −0.02% and TDY +0.04%.

XLITDYBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceXLIIndustrial Select Sector SPDR FundTDYTeledyne Technologies
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.37%−1.0% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero−0.73%−1.9% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.9%+0.70% to +3.1%Clear+2.0%+0.11% to +4.0%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.20%−0.74% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−1.3% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.41%−0.73% to −0.08%Tentative−0.42%−1.0% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.05%−1.1% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.81%−1.3% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.15%−0.62% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero+0.02%−1.3% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.33%−0.66% to −0.01%Tentative−1.1%−1.9% to −0.31%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.25%−0.72% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero−0.38%−1.0% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.01%−0.29% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero+0.69%−0.02% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.05%−0.29% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero+0.11%−0.32% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference−0.02%−0.03% to −0.01%Tentative+0.04%+0.01% to +0.07%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.23%−0.62% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero−0.62%−1.2% to −0.04%Tentative
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.37%+0.28% to +0.46%Clear+0.45%+0.25% to +0.66%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.47%+0.39% to +0.56%Clear+0.60%+0.40% to +0.81%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.08%−0.03% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.20% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.71%−1.8% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero−2.0%−3.4% to −0.64%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar0.00%−0.38% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero+0.37%−0.39% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.01%−0.11% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.33% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.03%−0.09% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.15% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure XLI and TDY togetherWhat if? Move a force

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Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.