USO vs MPC
- 4 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
USO and MPC clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is oil and energy: in weeks when the price of oil rose 10%, USO typically moved +8.3% and MPC +3.9%.
| Economic force | USOUnited States Oil Fund | MPCMarathon Petroleum |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.04%−0.70% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.27%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.9%+0.03% to +3.7%Tentative | +1.4%−2.2% to +5.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +0.08%−0.54% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%−0.56% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%Clear difference | +8.3%+7.1% to +9.5%Clear | +3.9%+3.1% to +4.8%Clear |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +1.0%−0.29% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.19%−3.0% to +3.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.73%−0.46% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.44%−1.8% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | +0.13%−0.39% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.6%−2.8% to −0.46%Tentative |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.65%−1.7% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%−0.53% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | −0.23%−0.65% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.75%−1.9% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.06%−0.20% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.37%−0.31% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | +0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.01%−0.03% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.09%−0.19% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.62%−1.6% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.02%−0.18% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.50%+0.14% to +0.86%Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.03%−0.09% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%+0.65% to +1.3%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.04%−0.19% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.13%−0.49% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.22%−1.0% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero | −2.8%−5.2% to −0.47%Tentative |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.16%−0.52% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.23%−1.3% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | −0.07%−0.22% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.09%−0.50% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.06%−0.01% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.10%−0.13% to +0.32%Not distinguishable from zero |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.