UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

URA vs DLTR

URA and DLTR clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is gold: in weeks when the price of gold rose 5%, URA typically moved +3.2% and DLTR +0.50%.

URADLTRBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceURAGlobal X Uranium ETFDLTRDollar Tree
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.34%−2.0% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−3.1% to −0.02%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+5.5%+1.6% to +9.4%Tentative+5.2%+1.2% to +9.3%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−4.0%−6.7% to −1.2%Tentative−2.1%−4.6% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.92%−1.9% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero−1.3%−2.7% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+2.0%−1.0% to +4.9%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−2.3% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.5%−1.5% to +4.5%Not distinguishable from zero−3.6%−7.5% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.22%−1.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−3.0% to −0.29%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.03%−1.4% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.6%−0.27% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%Clear difference+3.2%+2.1% to +4.3%Clear+0.50%−0.56% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.82%+0.10% to +1.5%Tentative−0.02%−0.72% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference+0.10%0.00% to +0.19%Tentative−0.08%−0.10% to −0.06%Clear
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+1.3%+0.40% to +2.1%Tentative+0.15%−0.86% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.43%0.00% to +0.85%Tentative+0.66%+0.19% to +1.1%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.48%−0.93% to −0.02%Tentative+0.53%+0.21% to +0.85%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference+1.0%+0.62% to +1.3%Clear−0.20%−0.68% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−5.3%−7.7% to −3.0%Clear−3.6%−5.6% to −1.6%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.78%−1.7% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−2.6% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.68%+0.31% to +1.1%Clear+0.04%−0.39% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.24%−0.61% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.24% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure URA and DLTR togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.