UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

SMH vs KLAC

On none of the 19 forces measured do SMH and KLAC differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

SMHKLACBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceSMHVanEck Semiconductor ETFKLACKLA Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.6%+0.32% to +2.9%Tentative+2.4%+0.33% to +4.4%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−3.2%−5.6% to −0.69%Tentative−4.2%−8.6% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.33%−1.7% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−3.5% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.24%−0.40% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero+0.31%−1.1% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.28%−2.2% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−3.7% to +5.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+2.2%+0.39% to +3.9%Tentative+1.6%−1.5% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.03%−1.0% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−3.6% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.19%−0.67% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.31%−2.2% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.09%−0.85% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero−0.31%−2.3% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.09%−0.66% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero+0.46%−0.64% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%0.00%−0.01% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.06% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.38%−0.33% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.27%−1.4% to +0.91%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.11%−0.16% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero+0.75%+0.09% to +1.4%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point−0.60%−0.85% to −0.34%Clear−0.18%−0.81% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+1.2%+1.0% to +1.4%Clear+2.0%+1.4% to +2.5%Clear
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.1%−3.0% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−4.9% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.51%−1.3% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−3.2% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.92%+0.67% to +1.2%Clear+1.4%+1.0% to +1.8%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.37%−0.59% to −0.14%Tentative−0.37%−0.69% to −0.06%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure SMH and KLAC togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.