Compare two stocks
SMCI and NVDA clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is gold: in weeks when the price of gold rose 5%, SMCI typically moved +5.6% and NVDA −0.48%.
| Economic force | SMCISupermicro | NVDANvidia |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.67%−3.8% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero | +2.2%+1.3% to +3.2%Clear |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | −9.3%−18.0% to −0.65%Tentative | −6.4%−9.9% to −3.0%Clear |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +1.9%−4.8% to +8.6%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.6%−0.46% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | +3.3%−0.30% to +7.0%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.2%+0.49% to +1.9%Clear |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +1.8%−8.6% to +12.1%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.2%−1.5% to +3.9%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +9.4%+0.05% to +18.8%Tentative | +3.4%+0.54% to +6.2%Tentative |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | +5.5%+2.2% to +8.8%Tentative | +1.3%+0.06% to +2.6%Tentative |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.0%−3.6% to +5.7%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.87%−0.48% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%Clear difference | +5.6%+0.94% to +10.3%Tentative | −0.48%−1.5% to +0.54%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +1.6%−0.75% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.44%−1.3% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | +0.04%−0.07% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.04%−0.01% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +1.5%−1.1% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.83%+0.11% to +1.6%Tentative |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | +0.06%−1.1% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.70%−1.0% to −0.38%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | −1.6%−2.7% to −0.45%Tentative | −1.2%−1.6% to −0.82%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | +2.1%+0.64% to +3.5%Tentative | +0.81%+0.41% to +1.2%Clear |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −9.5%−19.3% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.2%−4.7% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −1.2%−4.5% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.43%−1.5% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +1.8%+0.37% to +3.2%Tentative | +0.11%−0.19% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.86%−1.5% to −0.23%Tentative | −0.03%−0.22% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.