SHY vs AFL
- 7 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
SHY and AFL clearly differ on 7 of 19 forces. The widest gap is market volatility: in weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points, SHY typically moved −0.01% and AFL −0.92%.
| Economic force | SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | AFLAflac |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.36%−0.42% to −0.30%Clear | −0.17%−1.3% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.09%−0.03% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.88%−2.0% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −0.07%−0.11% to −0.03%Clear | +0.25%−1.0% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | 0.00%−0.02% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.20%−0.38% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +0.33%+0.25% to +0.40%Clear | +0.43%−1.5% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.41%−0.43% to −0.39%Clear | −1.3%−3.2% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | −0.01%−0.05% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.92%−1.5% to −0.36%Tentative |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.05%+0.02% to +0.08%Tentative | −0.27%−1.2% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.02%−0.01% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.62%−1.4% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%Clear difference | +0.01%−0.02% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.47%+0.05% to +0.89%Tentative |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | 0.00%0.00% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%Clear difference | −0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative | −0.74%−1.4% to −0.07%Tentative |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%−0.01% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.24%+0.03% to +0.44%Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%−0.01% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.86%+0.69% to +1.0%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.01%−0.02% to 0.00%Tentative | −0.47%−0.66% to −0.29%Clear |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.11%+0.04% to +0.19%Tentative | +1.0%−1.0% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.03%0.00% to +0.06%Tentative | +0.16%−0.53% to +0.85%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | −0.01%−0.01% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.28%−0.55% to −0.01%Tentative |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%0.00% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.36%+0.26% to +0.45%Clear |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.