UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

RSP vs TROW

On none of the 19 forces measured do RSP and TROW differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

RSPTROWBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceRSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFTROWT. Rowe Price
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−1.4% to −0.76%Clear−1.2%−2.5% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.8%+0.93% to +2.7%Clear+2.3%−0.21% to +4.8%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.45%−0.86% to −0.04%Tentative−0.05%−1.1% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.16%−0.39% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero−0.43%−0.92% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.68%−1.4% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−2.7% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.38%−1.1% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero−2.1%−3.6% to −0.67%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.51%−0.74% to −0.28%Clear+0.23%−0.36% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.20%−0.13% to +0.53%Not distinguishable from zero+0.43%−0.33% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.03%−0.25% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero−0.48%−1.1% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.12%−0.08% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero−0.31%−0.82% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.02% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.01% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.05%−0.31% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero+0.52%−0.23% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.38%+0.32% to +0.43%Clear+0.36%+0.15% to +0.57%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.48%+0.45% to +0.52%Clear+0.33%+0.07% to +0.59%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.15%−0.23% to −0.06%Tentative−0.09%−0.33% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.59%−1.3% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero+0.31%−1.3% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.04%−0.23% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.59% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.03%−0.13% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−0.40% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.05%0.00% to +0.09%Tentative+0.05%−0.05% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure RSP and TROW togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.