UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

JETS vs LUV

On none of the 19 forces measured do JETS and LUV differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

JETSLUVBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceJETSU.S. Global Jets ETFLUVSouthwest Airlines
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.10%−1.1% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.58%−2.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+3.2%+0.62% to +5.8%Tentative+3.9%+0.27% to +7.5%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.91%−0.38% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero+1.9%−0.01% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−3.1%−4.0% to −2.3%Clear−3.3%−4.4% to −2.1%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−3.1%−5.2% to −0.94%Tentative−2.2%−6.0% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.0%−3.8% to −0.26%Tentative−1.6%−4.5% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.8%−2.6% to −1.0%Clear−2.6%−4.6% to −0.58%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−0.01% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.84%−0.80% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.08%−0.64% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero−0.22%−1.6% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.66%+0.14% to +1.2%Tentative+1.0%−0.33% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.03%−0.07% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.10% to −0.01%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.28%−1.1% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero−0.89%−2.4% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+1.0%+0.65% to +1.3%Clear+1.1%+0.63% to +1.5%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.68%+0.38% to +1.0%Clear+1.0%+0.54% to +1.4%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.07%−0.23% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero+0.26%−0.16% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.0%−3.7% to −0.34%Tentative−3.6%−6.7% to −0.56%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.03%−0.82% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero−0.55%−1.7% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.24%+0.01% to +0.47%Tentative+0.30%−0.04% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.05%−0.21% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero−0.09%−0.33% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure JETS and LUV togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.