UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

IEF vs PPL

IEF and PPL clearly differ on 7 of 19 forces. The widest gap is euro: in weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar, IEF typically moved +0.08% and PPL −2.4%.

IEFPPLBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceIEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFPPLPPL Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.9%−1.9% to −1.8%Clear−1.8%−2.5% to −1.0%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.17%+0.06% to +0.28%Clear+0.17%−1.9% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.01%−0.07% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero−0.14%−1.3% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.01%−0.04% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−0.31% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.18%+0.10% to +0.26%Clear+0.62%−1.2% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.24%−0.31% to −0.18%Clear+0.40%−1.0% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference−0.01%−0.04% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−1.3%−1.8% to −0.68%Clear
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.07%+0.03% to +0.11%Clear+0.56%−0.14% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.03%0.00% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero+0.56%−0.09% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%Clear difference+0.02%0.00% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero+0.54%+0.12% to +1.0%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference0.00%0.00% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.04% to −0.01%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.03%−0.05% to −0.01%Tentative+0.02%−0.58% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference0.00%−0.01% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero+0.36%+0.20% to +0.52%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero+0.62%+0.49% to +0.76%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.02%−0.03% to −0.01%Tentative−0.09%−0.30% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollarClear difference+0.08%−0.01% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero−2.4%−3.9% to −1.0%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.02%−0.01% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.54% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.01%−0.02% to 0.00%Tentative−0.04%−0.24% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage pointClear difference0.00%0.00% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%+0.02% to +0.22%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure IEF and PPL togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.