GLD vs VXUS
- 4 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
GLD and VXUS clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is gold: in weeks when the price of gold rose 5%, GLD typically moved +5.0% and VXUS +0.43%.
| Economic force | GLDSPDR Gold Shares | VXUSVanguard Total International Stock ETF |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.21%−1.1% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.07%−0.49% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.44%−2.1% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.73%−0.31% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −3.2%−4.2% to −2.1%Clear | −2.8%−3.3% to −2.4%Clear |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%Clear difference | +0.38%−0.15% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.48%−0.74% to −0.22%Clear |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +0.87%−0.88% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.29%−1.1% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.09%−1.6% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.09%−0.50% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | +0.38%−0.59% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.95%−1.2% to −0.68%Clear |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.44%−0.29% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.43%+0.07% to +0.79%Tentative |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%Clear difference | +5.0%+5.0% to +5.0%Clear | +0.43%+0.21% to +0.66%Clear |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +1.2%+0.37% to +2.0%Tentative | +0.49%+0.19% to +0.79%Tentative |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference | +0.06%+0.03% to +0.09%Clear | 0.00%−0.01% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.05%−0.49% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.07%−0.26% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | −0.03%−0.22% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.17%+0.08% to +0.25%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | −0.03%−0.22% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.17%+0.08% to +0.27%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.02%−0.22% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.11%+0.01% to +0.21%Tentative |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −1.1%−2.6% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.46%−1.4% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.69%−1.3% to −0.05%Tentative | −0.15%−0.41% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +0.23%+0.05% to +0.41%Tentative | +0.41%+0.35% to +0.48%Clear |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | −0.12%−0.24% to 0.00%Tentative | 0.00%−0.07% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.