GLD vs EFA
- 5 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
GLD and EFA clearly differ on 5 of 19 forces. The widest gap is gold: in weeks when the price of gold rose 5%, GLD typically moved +5.0% and EFA +0.29%.
| Economic force | GLDSPDR Gold Shares | EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.21%−1.1% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.18%−0.55% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.44%−2.1% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.3%+0.22% to +2.5%Tentative |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −3.2%−4.2% to −2.1%Clear | −2.9%−3.4% to −2.4%Clear |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%Clear difference | +0.38%−0.15% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.52%−0.83% to −0.22%Clear |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +0.87%−0.88% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.34%−1.2% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.09%−1.6% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.26%−0.90% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | +0.38%−0.59% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.1%−1.4% to −0.79%Clear |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.44%−0.29% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.45%+0.01% to +0.89%Tentative |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%Clear difference | +5.0%+5.0% to +5.0%Clear | +0.29%−0.02% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +1.2%+0.37% to +2.0%Tentative | +0.50%+0.21% to +0.80%Tentative |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference | +0.06%+0.03% to +0.09%Clear | −0.01%−0.01% to 0.00%Tentative |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | +0.05%−0.49% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.19%−0.42% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | −0.03%−0.22% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.14%+0.05% to +0.23%Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.03%−0.22% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.27%+0.17% to +0.38%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.02%−0.22% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.03%−0.12% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −1.1%−2.6% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.36%−0.65% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.69%−1.3% to −0.05%Tentative | −0.07%−0.32% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +0.23%+0.05% to +0.41%Tentative | +0.20%+0.11% to +0.30%Clear |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | −0.12%−0.24% to 0.00%Tentative | +0.03%−0.01% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.