EFA vs AOS
- 4 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
EFA and AOS clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is mortgage rates: in weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points, EFA typically moved +0.45% and AOS −1.3%.
| Economic force | EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF | AOSA. O. Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.18%−0.55% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.82%−1.8% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.3%+0.22% to +2.5%Tentative | +1.6%−1.0% to +4.3%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −2.9%−3.4% to −2.4%Clear | −2.3%−3.5% to −1.0%Clear |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | −0.52%−0.83% to −0.22%Clear | −0.90%−1.6% to −0.20%Tentative |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −0.34%−1.2% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.27%−1.7% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.26%−0.90% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.71%−2.3% to +0.85%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | −1.1%−1.4% to −0.79%Clear | +0.04%−0.71% to +0.80%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage pointsClear difference | +0.45%+0.01% to +0.89%Tentative | −1.3%−2.2% to −0.31%Tentative |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.29%−0.02% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.09%−0.78% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.50%+0.21% to +0.80%Tentative | +0.12%−0.43% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | −0.01%−0.01% to 0.00%Tentative | +0.01%−0.02% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.19%−0.42% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.20%−0.51% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.14%+0.05% to +0.23%Tentative | +0.55%+0.35% to +0.76%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.27%+0.17% to +0.38%Clear | +0.67%+0.45% to +0.90%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.03%−0.12% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.29%−0.54% to −0.04%Tentative |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.36%−0.65% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.83%−3.4% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.07%−0.32% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.22%−1.0% to +0.53%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +0.20%+0.11% to +0.30%Clear | +0.13%−0.24% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.03%−0.01% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.20%+0.03% to +0.37%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.