DBC vs XLE
- 4 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
DBC and XLE clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is market volatility: in weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points, DBC typically moved −0.04% and XLE −1.7%.
| Economic force | DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR Fund |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.39%−0.19% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.18%−1.2% to +0.87%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.77%−0.45% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero | +3.0%+0.27% to +5.8%Tentative |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −1.3%−1.8% to −0.81%Clear | −0.37%−1.6% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | +3.2%+2.6% to +3.7%Clear | +2.6%+1.5% to +3.7%Clear |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +0.37%−0.70% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.02%−1.6% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.79%+0.08% to +1.5%Tentative | +0.36%−1.3% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | −0.04%−0.49% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.7%−2.8% to −0.69%Tentative |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.03%−0.54% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.65%−0.16% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%Clear difference | +0.77%+0.35% to +1.2%Tentative | −0.34%−1.0% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.55%+0.25% to +0.86%Tentative | +0.53%0.00% to +1.1%Tentative |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | +0.03%+0.02% to +0.04%Clear | +0.02%−0.01% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.03%−0.30% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.50%−1.2% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.04%−0.16% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.54%+0.31% to +0.76%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.03%−0.13% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%+0.78% to +1.1%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | +0.02%−0.06% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.19%−0.41% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −1.1%−1.7% to −0.49%Tentative | −2.3%−3.9% to −0.76%Tentative |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.28%−0.55% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.50%−1.2% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | +0.18%+0.07% to +0.28%Tentative | +0.03%−0.28% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.03%−0.03% to +0.09%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.14%+0.02% to +0.26%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.