BND vs ERIE
- 5 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
BND and ERIE clearly differ on 5 of 19 forces. The widest gap is mortgage rates: in weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points, BND typically moved +0.05% and ERIE −2.1%.
| Economic force | BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF | ERIEErie Indemnity |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −1.5%−1.6% to −1.5%Clear | −1.7%−4.1% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.15%+0.04% to +0.27%Tentative | +1.0%−3.4% to +5.3%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −0.03%−0.08% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.28%−2.4% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | 0.00%−0.02% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.07%−1.3% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −0.32%−0.41% to −0.23%Clear | +0.14%−3.9% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.31%−0.37% to −0.25%Clear | −0.77%−3.0% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | +0.01%−0.02% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.29%−1.2% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage pointsClear difference | +0.05%+0.01% to +0.09%Tentative | −2.1%−3.4% to −0.79%Tentative |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.01%−0.01% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.08%−1.3% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.02%0.00% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero | 0.00%−0.60% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | 0.00%0.00% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.01%−0.05% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative | −0.31%−1.9% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.41%+0.09% to +0.74%Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%−0.01% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.89%+0.59% to +1.2%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.01%−0.02% to 0.00%Tentative | −0.40%−0.79% to −0.01%Tentative |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.11%+0.02% to +0.19%Tentative | +0.20%−3.2% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.03%0.00% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%−0.38% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.01%−0.01% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.45%−0.85% to −0.05%Tentative |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%0.00% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.25%+0.10% to +0.41%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.