AGG vs ERIE
- 5 of 19 forces clearly differ
- Data through Oct 30, 2026
- Market move removed first
AGG and ERIE clearly differ on 5 of 19 forces. The widest gap is mortgage rates: in weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points, AGG typically moved +0.06% and ERIE −2.1%.
| Economic force | AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | ERIEErie Indemnity |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −1.6%−1.6% to −1.5%Clear | −1.7%−4.1% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.12%0.00% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero | +1.0%−3.4% to +5.3%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | −0.03%−0.08% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.28%−2.4% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | +0.01%−0.01% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.07%−1.3% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −0.33%−0.42% to −0.25%Clear | +0.14%−3.9% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.30%−0.36% to −0.24%Clear | −0.77%−3.0% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | 0.00%−0.03% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.29%−1.2% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage pointsClear difference | +0.06%+0.02% to +0.10%Tentative | −2.1%−3.4% to −0.79%Tentative |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.01%−0.01% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.08%−1.3% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.01%−0.01% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero | 0.00%−0.60% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | 0.00%0.00% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.01%−0.05% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative | −0.31%−1.9% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.41%+0.09% to +0.74%Tentative |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.01%0.00% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.89%+0.59% to +1.2%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.01%−0.02% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.40%−0.79% to −0.01%Tentative |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.09%0.00% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.20%−3.2% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.04%+0.01% to +0.07%Tentative | +1.0%−0.38% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%−0.01% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.45%−0.85% to −0.05%Tentative |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage pointClear difference | 0.00%0.00% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.25%+0.10% to +0.41%Tentative |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.