Arch Capital Group (ACGL): economic exposure
Over the 156 weeks to Sep 25, 2026, ACGL shows no clear sensitivity to any of the economic forces measured, beyond its movement with the stock market. No measurable link to interest rates, inflation expectations, U.S. dollar, oil and energy and credit spreads. It has typically moved 0.42 times as much as the U.S. stock market, which is accounted for separately.
Exposure to each economic force
| Economic force | Typical weekly move | 90% range | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | +1.3% | −1.1% to +3.7% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +1.0% | −0.31% to +2.4% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.54% | −3.1% to +2.0% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.51% | −0.95% to +2.0% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | −0.02% | −0.87% to +0.83% | Not distinguishable from zero |
More forces, beyond the core five
| Force | Typical weekly move | 90% range | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.5% | −0.17% to +3.1% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points | −1.4% | −2.2% to −0.71% | Clear |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.29% | −1.5% to +0.92% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.19% | −0.51% to +0.90% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.39% | −0.06% to +0.84% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | +0.03% | +0.01% to +0.05% | Tentative |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.58% | −1.2% to +0.06% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point | +0.11% | −0.12% to +0.33% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | +0.72% | +0.52% to +0.92% | Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point | −0.15% | −0.39% to +0.09% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.62% | −2.4% to +1.2% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | −0.76% | −1.6% to +0.09% | Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point | −0.35% | −0.60% to −0.09% | Tentative |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.14% | +0.01% to +0.26% | Tentative |
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. It shows how the stock has moved alongside five economic forces. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
Method: weekly returns over three years, regressed on weekly changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, 10-year inflation expectations, the trade-weighted dollar, oil and corporate credit spreads, controlling for the S&P 500. Newey-West standard errors; the 90% range and evidence label show how precisely each figure is measured. Prices from Yahoo Finance; economic series from FRED. Full methodology.