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ZBRA vs CMI · data through Oct 2, 2026

ZBRA and CMI clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is short-term rates: in weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points, ZBRA typically moved −5.5% and CMI +1.7%.

ZBRACMIBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceZBRAZebra TechnologiesCMICummins
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.3%−3.4% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−1.7% to −0.37%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+3.7%−0.40% to +7.9%Not distinguishable from zero+4.3%+1.6% to +6.9%Clear
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.55%−1.6% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.73%−0.73% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.71%−1.8% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero−0.55%−1.4% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.8%−6.3% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.45%−2.6% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage pointsClear difference−5.5%−8.3% to −2.8%Clear+1.7%+0.20% to +3.2%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.11%−1.7% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.14%−1.0% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.4%−0.06% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero−0.82%−2.0% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.60%−2.1% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.51%−1.1% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.24%−1.0% to +0.53%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.52% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.06%−0.09% to −0.02%Tentative−0.02%−0.04% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.55%−0.27% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.13%−0.56% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.84%+0.47% to +1.2%Clear+0.49%+0.24% to +0.75%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.46%+0.16% to +0.76%Tentative+0.52%+0.27% to +0.76%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.47%−1.0% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero+0.46%+0.09% to +0.83%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.2%−4.2% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero−3.5%−5.2% to −1.9%Clear
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.5%+0.21% to +2.8%Tentative+0.61%−0.14% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.17%−0.65% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero+0.42%+0.11% to +0.72%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.14%−0.08% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.24% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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