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XEL vs CB · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do XEL and CB differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

XELCBBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceXELXcel EnergyCBChubb Limited
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−2.1% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.38%−1.1% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.4%−3.9% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.80%−2.5% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.47%−0.83% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero+0.77%−0.26% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.09%−0.58% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−0.75% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.42%−3.8% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.13%−1.7% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.21%−1.3% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.21%−0.91% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.1%−1.7% to −0.43%Tentative−1.6%−2.1% to −1.0%Clear
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.62%−0.31% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.51%−1.3% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.45%−0.38% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.37%−1.1% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.10%−0.46% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.38% to +0.68%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.02%−0.04% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.02% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.64%−1.7% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero−0.48%−1.1% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.25%+0.02% to +0.49%Tentative+0.20%+0.04% to +0.37%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.71%+0.56% to +0.87%Clear+0.79%+0.62% to +1.0%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.30%−0.68% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero−0.38%−0.59% to −0.17%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.8%−3.5% to −0.12%Tentative−0.37%−1.8% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.05%−0.52% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero−0.57%−1.2% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.05%−0.27% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero−0.32%−0.59% to −0.06%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.05%−0.07% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero+0.20%+0.05% to +0.34%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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