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WFC vs COF · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do WFC and COF differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceWFCWells FargoCOFCapital One
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.7%−3.0% to −0.47%Tentative−2.0%−3.4% to −0.53%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+6.8%+3.6% to +10.0%Clear+5.1%+1.6% to +8.6%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.82%−1.1% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−0.62% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.66%−1.5% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero−0.94%−1.9% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−4.9%−8.3% to −1.5%Tentative−3.6%−6.7% to −0.64%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.57%−1.5% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero−2.3%−4.3% to −0.34%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.5%−2.5% to −0.43%Tentative−1.5%−2.5% to −0.52%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.6%+0.37% to +2.9%Tentative+0.79%−0.52% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−1.2%−2.0% to −0.43%Tentative−0.88%−1.7% to −0.06%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.17%−0.54% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.38%−1.0% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.04%−0.10% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.13% to −0.07%Clear
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.57%−1.7% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero+0.57%−0.19% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.60%+0.33% to +0.88%Clear+0.87%+0.65% to +1.1%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+1.0%+0.73% to +1.3%Clear+0.75%+0.51% to +1.0%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.13%−0.46% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero−0.09%−0.46% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.81%−3.5% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.8% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.08%−0.75% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero−0.31%−1.1% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.34%−0.59% to −0.10%Tentative−0.17%−0.49% to +0.15%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.10%−0.08% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−0.09% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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