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VRSK vs NSC · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do VRSK and NSC differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

VRSKNSCBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceVRSKVerisk AnalyticsNSCNorfolk Southern
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.5%−2.8% to −0.14%Tentative−1.2%−2.2% to −0.31%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.2%−1.5% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero+1.8%−0.37% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.18%−1.5% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−1.0% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.32%−0.46% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.14%−0.60% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.94%−3.8% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.75%−2.6% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−0.59% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero−0.46%−2.2% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.06%−0.90% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero+0.39%−0.47% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.01%−1.2% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.11%−1.1% to +0.87%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.44%−1.2% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−0.79% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.25%−0.63% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−0.82% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.01%−0.01% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.04% to 0.00%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.17%−0.87% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.44%−1.2% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.02%−0.35% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero+0.48%+0.24% to +0.71%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.21%−0.22% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero+0.78%+0.56% to +1.0%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.56%−1.0% to −0.18%Tentative−0.38%−0.64% to −0.13%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.4%−0.68% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.50%−0.95% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.17%−0.84% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.31%−0.67% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.55%−0.86% to −0.25%Tentative−0.37%−0.64% to −0.11%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.29%+0.09% to +0.49%Tentative+0.04%−0.13% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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