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TMO vs CHD · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do TMO and CHD differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceTMOThermo Fisher ScientificCHDChurch & Dwight
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.3%−2.3% to −0.30%Tentative−1.1%−2.0% to −0.24%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−1.8% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero+1.8%−0.43% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.25%−1.9% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.89% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−2.4% to −0.63%Clear−0.87%−1.4% to −0.32%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.5%−5.6% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−3.6% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.2%−4.0% to −0.43%Tentative−0.93%−2.3% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.34%−1.6% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.74% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.51%−0.55% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.31%−0.69% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.47%−0.42% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.50%−0.21% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.69%0.00% to +1.4%Tentative+0.33%−0.12% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.03%+0.01% to +0.04%Tentative+0.03%0.00% to +0.05%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.18%−0.95% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.36%−1.0% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.46%+0.17% to +0.75%Tentative+0.12%−0.12% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.54%+0.17% to +0.90%Tentative+0.40%+0.15% to +0.65%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.65%−1.0% to −0.29%Tentative−0.18%−0.39% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+2.6%+0.57% to +4.7%Tentative+0.40%−1.6% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.52%−0.58% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−0.76% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.08%−0.44% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−0.37% to −0.01%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.09%−0.08% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.10% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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