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TECH vs ULTA · data through Oct 2, 2026

TECH and ULTA clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is small vs large companies: in weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point, TECH typically moved +1.4% and ULTA +0.19%.

TECHULTABars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceTECHBio-TechneULTAUlta Beauty
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.6%−4.0% to −1.2%Clear−3.0%−4.7% to −1.3%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.37%−3.3% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.73%−2.7% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.4%−3.8% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−3.6% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−2.9% to −0.15%Tentative−0.91%−1.7% to −0.13%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−5.1%−8.4% to −1.8%Tentative−7.2%−10.9% to −3.5%Clear
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.3%−4.5% to −0.07%Tentative−5.0%−7.9% to −2.1%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.76%−2.3% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero+0.21%−1.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.4%−0.42% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−0.53% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.37%−1.8% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−1.4% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+1.0%+0.07% to +2.0%Tentative−0.34%−1.2% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%0.00%−0.03% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.14%−1.1% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.26%−1.1% to +0.57%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+1.4%+1.0% to +1.8%Clear+0.19%−0.21% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.79%+0.40% to +1.2%Clear−0.26%−0.64% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.59%−1.1% to −0.05%Tentative−0.46%−0.93% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.7%−1.1% to +4.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−2.6% to +4.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.93%−0.51% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero−0.52%−2.1% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.22%−0.32% to +0.75%Not distinguishable from zero−0.32%−0.68% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.15%−0.13% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero+0.02%−0.21% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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