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T vs CL · data through Oct 2, 2026

T and CL clearly differ on 1 of 19 forces. The widest gap is natural gas: in weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%, T typically moved −0.04% and CL +0.02%.

Economic forceTAT&TCLColgate-Palmolive
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.65%−1.8% to +0.46%Not distinguishable from zero−0.92%−1.7% to −0.16%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.5%−1.4% to +4.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.70%−1.3% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.8%−3.3% to −0.33%Tentative−1.4%−2.4% to −0.47%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.34%−0.45% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.63%−1.1% to −0.14%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.3%−1.0% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.66%−1.4% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.50%−2.6% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−2.5% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.61%−1.7% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero+0.14%−0.72% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.08%−1.0% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.79% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.42%−1.2% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero+0.63%−0.06% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.27%−0.87% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.38% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference−0.04%−0.07% to 0.00%Tentative+0.02%+0.01% to +0.03%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.19%−0.91% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero−0.56%−1.0% to −0.09%Tentative
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.20%−0.08% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.11% to +0.20%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.54%+0.32% to +0.76%Clear+0.53%+0.39% to +0.68%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.08%−0.53% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero−0.45%−0.64% to −0.26%Clear
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.6%−3.5% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero+1.6%−0.11% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.16%−0.69% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.38%−0.30% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.15%−0.43% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero−0.21%−0.36% to −0.05%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.02%−0.14% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero−0.05%−0.17% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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