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SW vs ULTA · data through Oct 2, 2026

SW and ULTA clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is value vs growth: in weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point, SW typically moved +1.1% and ULTA −0.26%.

SWULTABars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceSWSmurfit WestrockULTAUlta Beauty
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.5%−4.0% to −1.0%Clear−3.0%−4.7% to −1.3%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+5.2%+0.80% to +9.6%Tentative+0.73%−2.7% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−2.0%−4.5% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero−1.7%−3.6% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.6%−2.9% to −0.27%Tentative−0.91%−1.7% to −0.13%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−6.6%−10.3% to −2.8%Clear−7.2%−10.9% to −3.5%Clear
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.2%−6.1% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero−5.0%−7.9% to −2.1%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.21%−1.3% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero+0.21%−1.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+2.0%+0.20% to +3.8%Tentative+1.1%−0.53% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+1.7%+0.40% to +3.0%Tentative+0.05%−1.4% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.89%0.00% to +1.8%Tentative−0.34%−1.2% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.01%−0.02% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero+0.01%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.05%−0.89% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero−0.26%−1.1% to +0.57%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+1.4%+1.0% to +1.7%Clear+0.19%−0.21% to +0.59%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference+1.1%+0.79% to +1.4%Clear−0.26%−0.64% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.27%−0.15% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero−0.46%−0.93% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−4.6%−7.9% to −1.3%Tentative+1.1%−2.6% to +4.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.1%−2.2% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.52%−2.1% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.41%−0.05% to +0.87%Not distinguishable from zero−0.32%−0.68% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.09%−0.36% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero+0.02%−0.21% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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