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STZ vs PM · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do STZ and PM differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

STZPMBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceSTZConstellation BrandsPMPhilip Morris International
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.47%−0.71% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.37%−1.6% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−4.4% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.67%−3.4% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.5%−3.0% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.89%−2.2% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.71%−1.4% to −0.05%Tentative−0.07%−1.2% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.74%−2.1% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.92%−1.5% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−2.9% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−2.1% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.4%−2.2% to −0.55%Tentative−1.3%−2.4% to −0.21%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.30%−0.77% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.38%−0.67% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.20%−0.70% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.27%−0.65% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.26%−0.45% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.23%−0.46% to +0.91%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.03%0.00% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.03% to 0.00%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.06%−0.76% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−0.71%−1.3% to −0.13%Tentative
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.48%+0.14% to +0.83%Tentative+0.09%−0.16% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.75%+0.46% to +1.0%Clear+0.62%+0.40% to +0.84%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.19%−0.60% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.39% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.83%−3.1% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−4.0% to +0.93%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.54%−1.5% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.90% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.10%−0.20% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero−0.18%−0.48% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.06%−0.11% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−0.05% to +0.28%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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