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SPGI vs DRI · data through Oct 2, 2026

SPGI and DRI clearly differ on 3 of 19 forces. The widest gap is emerging markets: in weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point, SPGI typically moved −0.64% and DRI +0.06%.

Economic forceSPGIS&P GlobalDRIDarden Restaurants
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.2%−3.3% to −1.1%Clear−1.6%−2.8% to −0.49%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.6%+0.56% to +4.6%Tentative+1.3%−2.0% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.31%−0.64% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.95%−0.58% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.03%−0.68% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero−0.56%−1.2% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.4%−3.3% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−3.6% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.92%−2.5% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−3.4% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.05%−0.73% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−2.0% to −0.18%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.91%−1.7% to −0.14%Tentative+0.21%−1.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.36%−1.1% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero+0.35%−0.44% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.37%−0.89% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.46% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.10% to −0.03%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.23%−0.78% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.76% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.10%−0.44% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero+0.56%+0.24% to +0.88%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.18%−0.19% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero+0.63%+0.38% to +0.89%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.56%−1.0% to −0.13%Tentative+0.14%−0.16% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.25%−1.7% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−3.0% to +0.94%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.18%−1.1% to +0.74%Not distinguishable from zero−0.33%−1.3% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference−0.64%−1.0% to −0.31%Clear+0.06%−0.22% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.16%−0.03% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.19% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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