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SOXL vs DVA · data through Oct 2, 2026

SOXL and DVA clearly differ on 3 of 19 forces. The widest gap is momentum: in weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point, SOXL typically moved +4.0% and DVA +0.14%.

Economic forceSOXLDirexion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X SharesDVADaVita
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+1.3%−3.7% to +6.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.79%−0.80% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−3.7%−12.6% to +5.2%Not distinguishable from zero−4.7%−8.0% to −1.4%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.5%−6.1% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.67%−2.8% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.13%−2.3% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−0.92% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−3.1%−11.8% to +5.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.71%−4.4% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+5.0%−0.30% to +10.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−4.0% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.35%−3.8% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−2.6% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.83%−2.4% to +4.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.33%−2.4% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.77%−3.4% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.3% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.33%−1.4% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.78%−0.04% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%−0.03% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.01% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+1.4%−0.90% to +3.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.30%−1.4% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.79%−0.05% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.84%+0.36% to +1.3%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference−1.3%−2.1% to −0.57%Tentative+1.3%+0.73% to +1.8%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference+4.0%+3.1% to +4.9%Clear+0.14%−0.51% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−4.5%−10.1% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.21%−3.5% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−2.1%−5.0% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero−0.38%−1.6% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference+3.3%+2.4% to +4.1%Clear+0.12%−0.53% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−1.1%−1.9% to −0.32%Tentative−0.17%−0.47% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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