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SCHW vs AIG · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do SCHW and AIG differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forceSCHWCharles Schwab CorporationAIGAmerican International Group
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.12%−2.6% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.91% to +0.91%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.0%−3.5% to +5.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.86%−1.3% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.56%−2.2% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.64%−2.0% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.48%−0.35% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−0.55% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+0.07%−2.9% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.69%−1.3% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.1%−4.3% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero+0.78%−0.54% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.6%−2.8% to −0.44%Tentative−1.2%−2.0% to −0.36%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.5%+0.20% to +2.9%Tentative+0.31%−0.55% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.04%−0.81% to +0.89%Not distinguishable from zero−0.74%−1.5% to 0.00%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.15%−0.57% to +0.86%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.43% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.03%−0.06% to 0.00%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.04% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.23%−1.2% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero−0.22%−0.75% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.23%+0.01% to +0.45%Tentative+0.28%−0.01% to +0.57%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.59%+0.36% to +0.81%Clear+0.66%+0.45% to +0.87%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.23%−0.54% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−0.53% to −0.14%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.0%−3.7% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero−0.88%−2.2% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.18%−0.74% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.41%−1.0% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.22%−0.51% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero−0.30%−0.56% to −0.05%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.13%−0.06% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%+0.11% to +0.36%Clear
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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