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RVTY vs WAT · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do RVTY and WAT differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

RVTYWATBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceRVTYRevvityWATWaters Corporation
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.6%−2.9% to −0.19%Tentative−1.2%−2.5% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−2.8% to +5.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−4.2% to +4.3%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−1.5%−3.8% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero−1.2%−3.2% to +0.75%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−2.5% to −0.42%Tentative−1.5%−2.4% to −0.51%Tentative
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−5.1%−9.1% to −1.2%Tentative−2.8%−6.3% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−3.6%−6.5% to −0.74%Tentative−2.7%−4.9% to −0.45%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.09%−1.2% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%−0.82% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−0.94% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−0.58% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+1.1%−0.03% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.42%−0.67% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+1.7%+0.65% to +2.7%Tentative+0.83%+0.06% to +1.6%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.05%+0.03% to +0.08%Clear+0.01%−0.01% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.65%−0.39% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.70% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.72%+0.42% to +1.0%Clear+0.59%+0.32% to +0.86%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.47%+0.09% to +0.86%Tentative+0.55%+0.22% to +0.88%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.41%−0.92% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero−0.22%−0.68% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+2.8%+0.20% to +5.3%Tentative+1.6%−1.1% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.90%−0.52% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.16%−1.2% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.33%−0.15% to +0.80%Not distinguishable from zero+0.11%−0.32% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.07%−0.11% to +0.25%Not distinguishable from zero+0.06%−0.18% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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