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RCL vs EXPE · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do RCL and EXPE differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

RCLEXPEBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceRCLRoyal Caribbean GroupEXPEExpedia Group
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.6%−3.2% to −0.05%Tentative−2.1%−4.0% to −0.17%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+5.0%+0.73% to +9.2%Tentative+5.5%+1.5% to +9.5%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+2.2%−0.36% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero+2.0%−0.36% to +4.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−3.0% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero−0.87%−2.9% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−1.8%−5.9% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero−3.1%−6.8% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.8%−4.4% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−3.6% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−2.0%−3.3% to −0.80%Tentative−0.04%−2.2% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.75%−1.5% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−3.3% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−1.5%−2.7% to −0.25%Tentative−1.2%−2.3% to 0.00%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.28%−0.83% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−1.2% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.01%−0.05% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−0.06% to 0.00%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.55%−1.7% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−1.0% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.83%+0.36% to +1.3%Tentative+0.29%−0.10% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.69%+0.33% to +1.1%Clear+0.24%−0.25% to +0.73%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.26%−0.32% to +0.84%Not distinguishable from zero−0.60%−1.2% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.55%−3.4% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.62%−3.3% to +4.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.68%−1.8% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero+0.48%−1.3% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.11%−0.53% to +0.30%Not distinguishable from zero−0.74%−1.3% to −0.21%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.05%−0.28% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero+0.19%−0.04% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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