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PYPL vs NDAQ · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do PYPL and NDAQ differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

PYPLNDAQBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forcePYPLPayPalNDAQNasdaq, Inc.
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.28%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.88%−1.9% to +0.12%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.2%−1.9% to +6.4%Not distinguishable from zero+2.0%−0.05% to +4.1%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.90%−2.6% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero+0.13%−1.6% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.44%−1.2% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.49%−0.19% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.9%−1.9% to +5.7%Not distinguishable from zero+1.9%−0.19% to +4.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.4%−5.2% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−3.1% to −0.12%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.45%−0.50% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero−0.76%−1.3% to −0.18%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.73%−2.1% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero−0.60%−1.5% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.89%−2.0% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero+0.14%−0.53% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.48%−0.60% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.20%−0.61% to +0.21%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%−0.01% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.04% to −0.01%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+1.5%+0.09% to +2.8%Tentative+0.56%−0.25% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.15%−0.29% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.29% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.10%−0.51% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero+0.20%−0.12% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.78%−1.4% to −0.19%Tentative−0.34%−0.65% to −0.03%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+3.5%+0.57% to +6.3%Tentative−0.10%−2.3% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.21%−1.2% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%−0.62% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.56%−1.1% to −0.05%Tentative−0.59%−0.81% to −0.37%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.23%−0.05% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.05% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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