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PEP vs APD · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do PEP and APD differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

Economic forcePEPPepsiCoAPDAir Products
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−1.7% to −0.52%Clear−1.2%−2.4% to 0.00%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.0%−0.22% to +4.2%Not distinguishable from zero+2.2%−1.7% to +6.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.80%−1.8% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.33%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.55%−1.1% to −0.01%Tentative+0.13%−0.70% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.2%−0.53% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−1.6% to +3.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.52%−1.9% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero−1.5%−3.7% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.14%−0.51% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero−0.06%−0.94% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.05%−0.72% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero+0.47%−1.1% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.51%−0.29% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.25%−0.89% to +0.38%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.04%−0.65% to +0.57%Not distinguishable from zero+0.42%−0.34% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.02%−0.04% to −0.01%Tentative−0.02%−0.05% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.77%−1.5% to −0.05%Tentative+0.22%−0.55% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.19%+0.02% to +0.37%Tentative+0.09%−0.25% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.63%+0.43% to +0.84%Clear+0.87%+0.65% to +1.1%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.50%−0.74% to −0.26%Clear−0.67%−1.0% to −0.30%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.67%−0.77% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero+1.5%−0.88% to +3.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.15%−0.92% to +0.63%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%+0.17% to +2.2%Tentative
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.02%−0.21% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero−0.20%−0.55% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.07%−0.05% to +0.19%Not distinguishable from zero+0.18%−0.01% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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