Compare two stocks
PAYX and MS clearly differ on 4 of 19 forces. The widest gap is market volatility: in weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points, PAYX typically moved +1.3% and MS −1.1%.
| Economic force | PAYXPaychex | MSMorgan Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | −1.4%−2.9% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.93%−2.2% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points | +1.5%−0.75% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero | +2.1%−0.52% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero |
| U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2% | +0.29%−1.1% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.48%−1.4% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10% | +0.39%−0.49% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.35%−1.0% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points | −3.1%−6.1% to −0.11%Tentative | −2.7%−4.8% to −0.57%Tentative |
| Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points | +0.65%−1.3% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.18%−1.2% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 pointsClear difference | +1.3%+0.34% to +2.3%Tentative | −1.1%−1.9% to −0.31%Tentative |
| Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points | −0.30%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.82%−0.40% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5% | +0.20%−0.52% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.89%−1.6% to −0.13%Tentative |
| CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5% | +0.02%−0.59% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.14%−0.67% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10% | −0.03%−0.05% to −0.01%Tentative | −0.06%−0.09% to −0.02%Tentative |
| BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10% | −0.12%−0.74% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero | −0.02%−0.76% to +0.71%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference | +0.10%−0.12% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero | +0.61%+0.42% to +0.80%Clear |
| Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point | +0.38%+0.11% to +0.66%Tentative | +0.76%+0.50% to +1.0%Clear |
| MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.68%−1.0% to −0.34%Clear | +0.11%−0.18% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero |
| EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.86%−1.5% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero | −1.2%−3.4% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar | +0.66%−0.32% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero | 0.00%−0.55% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero |
| Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage pointClear difference | −0.67%−0.94% to −0.39%Clear | +0.06%−0.17% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero |
| ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point | +0.24%+0.08% to +0.40%Tentative | +0.06%−0.06% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero |
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.
This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.