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PAYX vs J · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do PAYX and J differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

PAYXJBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forcePAYXPaychexJJacobs Solutions
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.4%−2.9% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.86%−1.8% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.5%−0.75% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero+2.6%+0.65% to +4.6%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.29%−1.1% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−1.5% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.39%−0.49% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−0.85% to +0.47%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−3.1%−6.1% to −0.11%Tentative−2.7%−5.1% to −0.35%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.65%−1.3% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero−1.3%−3.3% to +0.61%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+1.3%+0.34% to +2.3%Tentative−0.39%−1.2% to +0.44%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.30%−1.6% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.59%−0.35% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.20%−0.52% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero−0.08%−0.94% to +0.79%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.02%−0.59% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−0.33%−0.89% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.03%−0.05% to −0.01%Tentative0.00%−0.03% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.12%−0.74% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−0.77% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.10%−0.12% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero+0.44%+0.20% to +0.68%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.38%+0.11% to +0.66%Tentative+0.43%+0.15% to +0.71%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.68%−1.0% to −0.34%Clear−0.36%−0.70% to −0.02%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.86%−1.5% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.58%−2.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.66%−0.32% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.23%−1.4% to +0.95%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.67%−0.94% to −0.39%Clear−0.01%−0.40% to +0.37%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.24%+0.08% to +0.40%Tentative+0.28%+0.12% to +0.44%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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