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O vs APTV · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do O and APTV differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

OAPTVBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceORealty IncomeAPTVAptiv
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.5%−3.2% to −1.7%Clear−2.5%−5.1% to 0.00%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.4%+0.75% to +4.0%Tentative+4.2%−1.8% to +10.1%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−2.1%−3.0% to −1.2%Clear−2.1%−4.3% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.12%−0.38% to +0.62%Not distinguishable from zero+0.05%−1.2% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.45%−2.2% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−5.3% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.82%−1.9% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−2.6%−5.1% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.82%−1.5% to −0.16%Tentative−0.55%−2.2% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.32%−1.2% to +0.58%Not distinguishable from zero−0.15%−1.9% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.27%−0.47% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−2.7% to −0.06%Tentative
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.09%−0.34% to +0.52%Not distinguishable from zero+0.40%−0.50% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.04% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.07% to −0.01%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.18%−0.65% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−0.80%−1.6% to −0.02%Tentative
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.36%+0.18% to +0.53%Clear+0.64%+0.23% to +1.0%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.69%+0.57% to +0.82%Clear+0.50%+0.08% to +0.92%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.37%−0.59% to −0.14%Tentative−0.09%−0.54% to +0.36%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.27%−1.7% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.18%−3.8% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.56%+0.01% to +1.1%Tentative+1.0%−0.23% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.07%−0.21% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero+0.61%+0.25% to +1.0%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.12%+0.02% to +0.21%Tentative+0.25%+0.05% to +0.45%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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