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NVR vs TMO · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do NVR and TMO differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

NVRTMOBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceNVRNVR, Inc.TMOThermo Fisher Scientific
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.7%−3.5% to −2.0%Clear−1.3%−2.3% to −0.30%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.82%−2.0% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero+1.1%−1.8% to +3.9%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.42%−1.5% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero−0.24%−1.9% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−2.2% to −0.93%Clear−1.5%−2.3% to −0.64%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−3.1%−4.9% to −1.2%Clear−2.5%−5.6% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.52%−2.3% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−2.2%−4.0% to −0.44%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.59%−0.12% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.34%−1.6% to +0.92%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.04%−1.1% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.52%−0.54% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.11%−0.87% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero+0.46%−0.43% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.47%−1.0% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero+0.69%0.00% to +1.4%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%0.00% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%+0.01% to +0.04%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.17%−0.51% to +0.85%Not distinguishable from zero+0.18%−0.95% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.67%+0.45% to +0.90%Clear+0.46%+0.17% to +0.75%Tentative
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.63%+0.38% to +0.88%Clear+0.54%+0.17% to +0.90%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.24%−0.51% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.65%−1.0% to −0.29%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+2.1%+0.05% to +4.1%Tentative+2.6%+0.57% to +4.7%Tentative
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.24%−1.2% to +0.75%Not distinguishable from zero+0.53%−0.58% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.21%−0.39% to −0.03%Tentative−0.08%−0.43% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.01%−0.12% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.08% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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