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NVR vs MAS · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do NVR and MAS differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

NVRMASBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceNVRNVR, Inc.MASMasco
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.7%−3.5% to −2.0%Clear−3.2%−4.3% to −2.2%Clear
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+0.82%−2.0% to +3.6%Not distinguishable from zero+2.6%+0.25% to +4.9%Tentative
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−0.42%−1.5% to +0.69%Not distinguishable from zero+0.63%−0.72% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.5%−2.2% to −0.93%Clear−1.5%−2.3% to −0.61%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−3.1%−4.9% to −1.2%Clear−2.6%−4.7% to −0.46%Tentative
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.52%−2.3% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.2% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.59%−0.12% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.07%−0.95% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.04%−1.1% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−1.2% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.11%−0.87% to +0.64%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.92% to +0.88%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.47%−1.0% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero−0.57%−1.1% to −0.03%Tentative
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.02%0.00% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero−0.01%−0.03% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.17%−0.51% to +0.85%Not distinguishable from zero+0.39%−0.40% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.67%+0.45% to +0.90%Clear+1.0%+0.77% to +1.3%Clear
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.63%+0.38% to +0.88%Clear+0.84%+0.52% to +1.2%Clear
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.24%−0.51% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero+0.09%−0.26% to +0.43%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+2.1%+0.05% to +4.1%Tentative+0.19%−2.7% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−0.24%−1.2% to +0.75%Not distinguishable from zero−0.24%−1.3% to +0.81%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.21%−0.39% to −0.03%Tentative+0.13%−0.23% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.01%−0.12% to +0.13%Not distinguishable from zero−0.10%−0.26% to +0.05%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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