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NOW vs ADP · data through Oct 2, 2026

NOW and ADP clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is value vs growth: in weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point, NOW typically moved −1.0% and ADP +0.40%.

Economic forceNOWServiceNowADPAutomatic Data Processing
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.22%−1.6% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−1.2% to +0.90%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−0.35%−4.0% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.82%−1.5% to +3.2%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+1.5%−0.48% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.4%+0.29% to +2.5%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.23%−1.7% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.60% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.46%−4.1% to +3.1%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−3.9% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−2.8%−5.4% to −0.21%Tentative+0.16%−1.9% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+1.5%−0.33% to +3.4%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%+0.26% to +2.1%Tentative
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.20%−1.8% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero−0.32%−1.5% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+0.39%−0.53% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero−0.17%−0.84% to +0.51%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.79%−1.7% to +0.14%Not distinguishable from zero−0.36%−0.88% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%Clear difference+0.10%+0.07% to +0.12%Clear0.00%−0.02% to +0.02%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+0.91%−0.28% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−1.0% to +0.58%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point−0.41%−0.88% to +0.07%Not distinguishable from zero0.00%−0.22% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference−1.0%−1.5% to −0.46%Clear+0.40%+0.11% to +0.68%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.73%−1.5% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero−0.78%−1.1% to −0.45%Clear
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.9%−0.88% to +4.7%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−0.69% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.84%−0.78% to +2.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%+0.31% to +2.2%Tentative
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.80%−1.3% to −0.31%Tentative−0.76%−1.0% to −0.49%Clear
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.13%−0.19% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero+0.27%+0.07% to +0.47%Tentative
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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