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MTD vs CHD · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MTD and CHD differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MTDCHDBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMTDMettler ToledoCHDChurch & Dwight
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.94%−2.2% to +0.27%Not distinguishable from zero−0.82%−1.6% to −0.07%Tentative
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+1.1%−1.5% to +3.7%Not distinguishable from zero+1.4%−0.58% to +3.3%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.21%−1.8% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−0.64% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−1.9%−2.8% to −1.0%Clear−1.0%−1.5% to −0.46%Clear
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−0.90%−3.2% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero−1.3%−3.2% to +0.67%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.1%−2.9% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero−1.1%−2.5% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−0.77%−2.0% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero−0.02%−0.77% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.22%−1.8% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.47%−0.47% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.38%−1.4% to +0.60%Not distinguishable from zero+0.51%−0.19% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.67%+0.03% to +1.3%Tentative+0.31%−0.15% to +0.77%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.05% to +0.03%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%0.00% to +0.06%Tentative
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.34%−1.3% to +0.66%Not distinguishable from zero−0.32%−0.95% to +0.31%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.52%+0.28% to +0.75%Clear+0.11%−0.13% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.67%+0.36% to +1.0%Clear+0.38%+0.13% to +0.63%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.42%−0.73% to −0.11%Tentative−0.20%−0.41% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+1.5%−0.39% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+0.89%−1.0% to +2.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.11%−1.2% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.65% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.02%−0.46% to +0.42%Not distinguishable from zero−0.19%−0.37% to −0.02%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.29%+0.13% to +0.44%Clear+0.03%−0.10% to +0.16%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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