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MSCI vs AZO · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MSCI and AZO differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MSCIAZOBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMSCIAZOAutoZone
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.49%−1.5% to +0.50%Not distinguishable from zero−0.83%−1.8% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points−0.19%−2.8% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.58%−1.8% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.36%−0.90% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero+0.48%−0.74% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%+0.04%−0.69% to +0.78%Not distinguishable from zero−0.53%−1.2% to +0.10%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points+1.4%−0.80% to +3.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.4%−0.94% to +3.8%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−1.2%−3.3% to +0.82%Not distinguishable from zero+1.9%+0.11% to +3.7%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.14%−0.87% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.46%−0.30% to +1.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−1.0%−1.9% to −0.05%Tentative−1.1%−2.2% to −0.09%Tentative
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.58%−1.4% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero+0.75%−0.19% to +1.7%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.45%−0.94% to +0.04%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%−0.34% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.01%−0.02% to +0.01%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%0.00% to +0.08%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.06%−0.65% to +0.53%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−1.0% to +0.65%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point−0.09%−0.45% to +0.26%Not distinguishable from zero+0.04%−0.25% to +0.33%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point+0.18%−0.11% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero+0.32%+0.01% to +0.63%Tentative
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−0.44%−0.82% to −0.05%Tentative−0.30%−0.55% to −0.05%Tentative
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.63%−1.3% to +2.6%Not distinguishable from zero−0.03%−2.3% to +2.2%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.15%−0.69% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.85%+0.11% to +1.6%Tentative
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point−0.35%−0.69% to −0.02%Tentative−0.21%−0.53% to +0.11%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.10%−0.08% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero+0.15%−0.04% to +0.34%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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