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MS vs LLY · data through Oct 2, 2026

MS and LLY clearly differ on 2 of 19 forces. The widest gap is small vs large companies: in weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point, MS typically moved +0.61% and LLY −0.22%.

Economic forceMSMorgan StanleyLLYLilly (Eli)
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.93%−2.2% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−1.6%−3.9% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+2.1%−0.53% to +4.6%Not distinguishable from zero+1.0%−4.0% to +6.0%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%+0.47%−1.4% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero+0.44%−1.8% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−0.34%−1.0% to +0.35%Not distinguishable from zero+0.25%−1.1% to +1.6%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−2.7%−4.8% to −0.57%Tentative−1.9%−5.8% to +2.1%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+0.18%−1.2% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.2%−2.0% to +4.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points−1.1%−1.9% to −0.32%Tentative−1.3%−3.5% to +0.83%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points+0.82%−0.40% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.12%−2.0% to +2.3%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%−0.89%−1.7% to −0.13%Tentative+0.49%−0.80% to +1.8%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%−0.14%−0.67% to +0.39%Not distinguishable from zero+0.91%−0.17% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%−0.06%−0.09% to −0.02%Tentative+0.01%−0.04% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%−0.02%−0.76% to +0.72%Not distinguishable from zero−1.0%−2.5% to +0.48%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.61%+0.43% to +0.80%Clear−0.22%−0.65% to +0.22%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage pointClear difference+0.76%+0.50% to +1.0%Clear+0.04%−0.41% to +0.49%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point+0.11%−0.18% to +0.40%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.50% to +0.41%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.2%−3.4% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero−1.4%−5.1% to +2.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar0.00%−0.55% to +0.56%Not distinguishable from zero−0.52%−1.7% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+0.06%−0.17% to +0.29%Not distinguishable from zero−0.16%−0.55% to +0.23%Not distinguishable from zero
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point+0.06%−0.06% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero−0.04%−0.24% to +0.17%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

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