UNSTRUCTURED ALPHAMeasure a portfolio

Compare two stocks

MRNA vs EL · data through Oct 2, 2026

On none of the 19 forces measured do MRNA and EL differ by more than the noise in the readings: their 90% ranges overlap every time.

MRNAELBars: 90% ranges. Hollow: could not be told apart from zero.Same figures in the table below.
Economic forceMRNAModernaELEstée Lauder Companies (The)
Interest ratesIn weeks when the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points−0.23%−5.2% to +4.8%Not distinguishable from zero−0.70%−2.9% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
Inflation expectationsIn weeks when 10-year inflation expectations rose 0.25 percentage points+9.2%−8.2% to +26.6%Not distinguishable from zero+2.6%−3.5% to +8.7%Not distinguishable from zero
U.S. dollarIn weeks when the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 2%−11.0%−21.0% to −1.1%Tentative−3.5%−5.9% to −1.1%Tentative
Oil and energyIn weeks when the price of oil rose 10%−3.6%−6.8% to −0.43%Tentative−0.74%−2.2% to +0.76%Not distinguishable from zero
Credit spreadsIn weeks when corporate credit spreads widened 0.25 percentage points−18.6%−33.8% to −3.4%Tentative−3.6%−8.7% to +1.4%Not distinguishable from zero
Short-term ratesIn weeks when the 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.25 percentage points+4.2%−2.2% to +10.6%Not distinguishable from zero−4.4%−8.4% to −0.46%Tentative
Market volatilityIn weeks when market volatility (the VIX) rose 5 points+0.11%−2.5% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero−0.63%−1.9% to +0.70%Not distinguishable from zero
Mortgage ratesIn weeks when the 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 percentage points−0.91%−4.7% to +2.9%Not distinguishable from zero−1.3%−4.1% to +1.5%Not distinguishable from zero
GoldIn weeks when the price of gold rose 5%+4.4%−0.71% to +9.5%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−0.14% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
CopperIn weeks when the price of copper rose 5%+0.57%−1.8% to +3.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.45%−1.1% to +2.0%Not distinguishable from zero
Natural gasIn weeks when the U.S. natural gas price (Henry Hub) rose 10%+0.07%−0.04% to +0.18%Not distinguishable from zero+0.02%−0.02% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
BitcoinIn weeks when the price of bitcoin rose 10%+4.9%−2.3% to +12.2%Not distinguishable from zero+1.3%−0.04% to +2.7%Not distinguishable from zero
Small vs large companiesIn weeks when small companies beat large ones by 1 percentage point+0.23%−0.80% to +1.3%Not distinguishable from zero+0.03%−0.50% to +0.55%Not distinguishable from zero
Value vs growthIn weeks when value stocks beat growth stocks by 1 percentage point−0.11%−1.0% to +0.75%Not distinguishable from zero+0.47%−0.01% to +1.0%Not distinguishable from zero
MomentumIn weeks when recent winners beat the stock market by 1 percentage point−1.0%−2.3% to +0.24%Not distinguishable from zero−0.57%−1.2% to +0.06%Not distinguishable from zero
EuroIn weeks when the euro rose 2% against the U.S. dollar+0.43%−5.2% to +6.0%Not distinguishable from zero+0.36%−4.2% to +4.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Japanese yenIn weeks when the yen rose 2% against the U.S. dollar−1.4%−4.0% to +1.1%Not distinguishable from zero+0.24%−1.4% to +1.9%Not distinguishable from zero
Emerging marketsIn weeks when emerging-market stocks beat the S&P 500 by 1 percentage point+1.3%+0.45% to +2.2%Tentative+0.65%+0.11% to +1.2%Tentative
ChinaIn weeks when Chinese stocks beat other emerging markets by 1 percentage point−0.53%−1.0% to −0.10%Tentative+0.13%−0.19% to +0.45%Not distinguishable from zero
Each figure is the stock's typical move in a week when the force moved by the stated amount, after accounting for the stock market, with its 90% range beneath. Grey figures could not be told apart from zero. A row is marked a clear difference only when the two 90% ranges do not overlap.

This describes the past, and it is not a forecast. Relationships change, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Measure MRNA and EL togetherWhat if? Move a force

Your portfolio, measured the same way

Every figure on these pages is one stock at a time. The app measures a whole portfolio: which forces it is exposed to, which holdings cause it, and how sure the reading is. Free, no account for the first report.